The highly anticipated Austrian legislative elections, held on September 29, 2024, showcased a political showdown after turbulent years of political back-and-forth. The elections determined the composition of the 28th National Council, the lower house of Austria’s bicameral parliament. After experiencing turbulent years in politics, which saw the collapse of the coalition government between the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) and the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) following the ‘Ibiza Scandal’, a series of corruption cases leading to a motion of no confidence against former Chancellor Sebastian Kurz and ultimately four chancellors in four years, Austria was charged with anticipation and speculation on who would lead the country.

FPÖ Emerges Victorious

As evidenced by the polls, the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) won the election, achieving a total of 28.8%. The Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) came in second with 26.3% followed by the Social Democrats (SPÖ) with 21.1%, the liberals (NEOS) with 9.2% and the Greens (die Grünen) with 8.3%.

ÖVP’s Potential Concession to FPÖ Amid Political Tensions

Given that no majority was reached for any party, parties will now enter coalition talks to form the new government. Prior to the elections, every party has openly stated they will not go into coalition with the FPÖ with Herbert Kickl as its head, due to his radical far-right views and stances on key issues such climate change, immigration and European affairs. However, given the overlap in their manifesto’s, it is likely that the ÖVP will concede their chancellorship to the FPÖ to push their agenda in government. Furthermore, after having claimed the same following the Länder elections in Lower Austria (29 January 2023) and Salzburg (23 April 2023), the ÖVP agreed to form an alliance, nonetheless.

Another hurdle in the way of the ‘Volkskanzler’ (People’s chancellor) Herbert Kickl from becoming chancellor is that he requires the approval from the Austrian President Alexander Van Der Bellen. Due to Kickl’s anti-European stance and his refusal to condemn the invasion of Ukraine by Russian armed forces, Van Der Bellen raised the possibility of preferring another, more moderate figure from the FPÖ.

Other coalitions that reach the 92-mandate majority such as FPÖ – SPÖ or ÖVP – SPÖ, are unlikely to form due to the political differences between the parties. A three-way coalition between ÖVP-SPÖ-NEOS can also therefore be ruled out. Anticipation will remain tense for the coming weeks to see which parties side with one another.

FPÖ’s Agenda: Immigration and National Security

With the FPÖ most likely to lead government, their main areas of focus lie in immigration and national security. Naming their programme ‘Fortress Austria’, the party plans to reduce care given to asylum seekers and opposes family reunification for migrants already in Austria. On the economic side, it proposes a reduction in corporate tax and wage costs, two policies included in the programme of the ÖVP. The FPÖ vows to ensure equal access to public health regardless of social or religious background, as well as foster efficient healthcare management and fair treatment of healthcare workers. However, by prioritising national security and industry friendly measures we could see less funds flow towards public health needs.

Austria’s European Influence: Balancing National and EU Interests

As a smaller, neutral Member State, Austria has balanced its national interests with a commitment to European unity, contributing to economic stability and regional cooperation. However, since the tenure of Sebastian Kurz, Austria has seen a shift towards more conservative and sometimes populist policies, particularly on immigration and EU relations. Kurz’s leadership marked a period of stricter immigration controls and a more assertive stance within the EU, aligning somewhat with the broader populist trends seen in countries like Hungary and Poland. Nevertheless, Austria’s approach has been more moderate compared to the more extreme populist movements in other European nations.

In recent years, the rise of the far-right Freedom Party has further influenced Austria’s political landscape, reflecting a broader European trend towards populism driven by concerns over immigration, economic instability, and national sovereignty. This mirrors the populist surge in other countries, where leaders capitalise on public discontent with traditional political elites and globalist policies. Despite these shifts, Austria continues to play a crucial role in the EU, balancing its national interests with its commitments to European integration and cooperation.

Conclusion: Austria’s Political Future

The next 5 years will see Austria follow the continuous far-right shift in European politics, adopting stricter anti-immigration policies, heightened national security measures, and an overall more nationalist approach to governance. This trajectory will significantly impact public affairs, as policymakers and public administrators will need to navigate the challenges of implementing these policies while balancing them with Austria’s commitments to European values and human rights. The results, though predictable, underscore the importance of addressing the complex socio-political issues faced by this small central European nation, and highlight the need for a nuanced approach to public administration that can balance national interests with broader European integration.